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Joshua's Beginner's Investing Blog

By Joshua Kennon, About.com Guide to Beginner's Investing since 2001

Does Anyone Actually Read the Obama and McCain Economic Plans?

Thursday August 28, 2008
As many of you know, I'm a Republican that is voting for Barack Obama. Actually, I'm pretty sure most of my all-Republican family is voting for Obama. Politics matter to us a great deal, in part because they have very real influence on the economy and your (and my) investment results - witness the wealth that has been created because of the Roth IRA, Traditional IRA, SEP-IRA, and 401k plans. Anyway, last night, after his acceptance speech, I was working on a new specialty retail business my holding company is launching and had Larry King Live on in the background. The guests they had on the show included Ben Stein (for whom I have great respect), and a few other folks.

Once they got into the specifics of the pledge Obama made to cut taxes on 95% of Americans, one guest went on about how most lower and middle class people don't pay income taxes anyway. Sitting here, in the decorum of my office, it would have felt good to yell through the television. That's why the proposal is based on a $1,000 tax credit to offset payroll taxes. For the average employee, who is not subject to self-employment taxes, you're talking about virtually no FICA withholding on the first, say, $10,000 in income. That's not only comparable to, but larger than, the economic stimulus payments that were sent our earlier in the year, permanently rippling through the economy. The benefits, of course, are lower for a self-employed person because they have to pay both components of the payroll tax (whereas half the costs are covered for those working for someone else).

As always, though, I appreciated Ben Stein's commentary. I did feel like he was a bit intellectually dishonest (uninformed, I hope) about the abortion issue when he stated that Obama had not even voted against a partial birth ban in Illinois. If you go back and study the issue, it was because the particular law did not include an exception for the health of the mother and wasn't expected to pass judicial muster when brought up on a constitutional challenge. What I want to know is, if I'm sitting here running a collection of businesses and investing full-time yet still study and read all of these papers, what the heck is the average American doing?

Thank goodness I didn't witness the protest debacle. Apparently, there were protestors on television holding signs with faces such as Dick Cheney, Nancy Pelosi, and George W. Bush, demanding that the war come to an end. The people in the group didn't know who Madam Speaker was - not her name, job title, role - nothing.

And can someone please explain to people who talk about "activist judges legislating from the bench" who are "usurping our democracy" that we do not and have not ever lived in a Democracy. We live in a Republic. A Constitutional Republic. This is due, in part, to the wisdom of Benjamin Franklin (a fantastic investor himself! Take note!) who likened a democracy to mob rule; comparable to two wolves and a lamb having a vote on what's for dinner. When you get into issues like gay rights, abortion, prayer in schools, segregation, et cetera, the judges are performing their duty. If we had put the issue of desegregation up for a vote, it never would have passed.

Maybe if I ever put down the stock certificates and pick up a pen by running for Governor or Congress, I'll push to have every high school senior in my state sign an agreement prior to graduation stating, "I understand that I do not live in a Democracy. I live in a Constitutional Republic." Even then, would they realize that individual citizens do not have the right to elect the President, but rather the State Legislatures? And even if the Delegates are sent to the Electoral College, they can change their mind (in most cases) and, if they wanted, elect Oprah Winfrey or Billy Joel as the Commander in Chief an there's not a thing they can do about it?

I'm also fascinated by the issue of polls. They keep saying the race is close, but has anyone pointed out that it isn't even close with those who are 30 years old or younger - yet these are the people who are most likely to have only a cell phone, no land line used by traditional polling groups, and aren't registered anywhere in terms of phone lists, donor lists, etc.? I've got direct access to at least four corporate landlines from near my desk at headquarters - but personally, I don't maintain a landline. Everything goes through my iPhone. My siblings are the same way. The government has got to figure out how to catch up with the paradigm shift that's taken place these past few years.

Image property of the Associated Press

Comments

September 2, 2008 at 1:18 pm
(1) Rich La Monica says:

I began reading this article expecting to hear about the differences between the two candidates economic plans, but was subjected to a Liberal diatribe.

Talk about intellectually dishonesty

September 2, 2008 at 2:03 pm
(2) AC says:

@Rich: I think your expectations were a bit off for the article and then unfair to make a jab just because the article did not meet your expectation. Unless, Mr. Kennon held back information that would contradict the position he is stating, then he is being honest. You may not agree with the position stated, but by being combative you have undermined your own credibility.

Personally, I am sick of the media which seems unable to even look up the term “intellectually honest” let alone approach it. It is discouraging to see life long politicians with life long guaranteed health care thinking they can actually understand the rest of the US.

September 4, 2008 at 10:35 pm
(3) beginnersinvest says:

Dear Mr. La Monica:

You made a good point about not detailing the difference from the two tax plans in your recent comment on the Investing for Beginners blog. In the heat of the moment, I took for granted that most of my readers were familiar with it which was, to be frank, a bit optimistic.

Normally, it’s not possible to respond individually due to the enormous amount of email we receive at About.com’s Investing for Beginners site but we just wanted to let you know that this evening, an updated blog will be published that details a breakdown of the estimated net effect on different household demographics based on the proposed McCain and Obama plans. The data was prepared by an independent organization, the Tax Policy Center, and distributed by CNN Money’s team.

The office had a good laugh about your “liberal diatribe” comment because those who know me realize I’m ordinarily a dyed-in-the-wool Coca-Cola Red Republican who is likely to wax poetic about the fiscal policies of Newt Gingrich. My passion in the blog entry came from the fact that, having read the hundreds of pages of proposed policies, the ads the McCain camp were running were, in my opinion, bordering on blatant lies. We all can disagree on policy, social issues, et cetera, but I at least expect the individuals and parties involved to be upfront and honest about what they believe and their positions, not mischaracterized the proposals of their opponents.

Thank you for taking the time to write. We always appreciate reader feedback.

Sincerely,

Joshua Kennon
Investing for Beginners
About.com, The New York Times
http://beginnersinvest.about.com

September 6, 2008 at 12:28 am
(4) Theresa says:

Obama will build more red tape and political empires in Washington. He talks a good game but the path he has left has shown that he has only been concerned about building himself and not about being concerned for the average person. He will say whatever he needs to to get your vote, and with you he has succeeded.
McCain has the experience, and the record that I’m going for. Obama is all talk…..he has written a few books, but I fail to see how that has helped me.

September 6, 2008 at 4:15 pm
(5) Joshua Kennon says:

Theresa,

Obama hasn’t convinced me to vote for him with his words or even his speeches. And given my business and financial experience, it is almost laughable when someone implies, or outright says, that somehow I’ve been duped into political promises that can’t be met. There are unquestionably some ideas in the Democratic platform that are anathema to me - the idea of publicly disclosed union votes, for instance, is against the very spirit of a representative form of Government. We own our votes, and shouldn’t have to disclose them to our neighbor to be subject to potential retribution.

And let’s be honest - it’s not going to make a big difference to me financially if McCain wins. I’m young, have built a respectable fortune out of nothing, was the first in my family to go to college, and have multiple private equity businesses through which I conduct my capital operations. I’m not going to have to sell my Jaguar or Lexus, my art collection, stop buying $800 fountain pens, or suddenly start cutting down on the steak dinners.

My vote comes down to what I think is going to be right for the American people based upon the economic data - the average guy out there attempting to build a life for him (or her) and his children. When my friends were out drinking and partying in college, I was working and building up a portfolio that has now grown to a sufficient level that I’m now in the top fraction of wealth in the world. What I want is for everyone - regardless of age, education, nationality, religion, sexual orientation, gender, or geographic location - to have the same opportunities for upward mobility that I did. That’s the soul of America. Reading through both sets of proposals, campaign platforms, and voting records, my educated guess is that Obama’s plan is geared more toward upward mobility with McCain’s protecting the interest of people like me - the ones that show up to work when they want, wear $3,000 watches, and drink gourmet cappuccinos out of $300 gold-rimmed mugs. That’s great for us, but I remember very, very well what it was like when you want to buy clothes and can’t afford them and I believe that we, as a people, need to help those willing to work for it achieve the same level of success that God has enabled us to attain.

One of the discussions around headquarters has been this notion of “experience”. Perhaps it’s the nature of our businesses, or my generation, but seniority shouldn’t subject someone to deference or the unqualified moniker of “experience”. By those metrics, Jack Welch wouldn’t be qualified to run for President and yet if he were in the race, I’d likely be outside holding signs to support him. I’ve always believed that if a 20 year old can do the job better, faster, with greater results, he should get the promotion over the 55 year old “company man” who has been there his entire career. Just like the Yankees, you need to design the lineup based on individual contribution to the scoreboard.

Capitalism is the great equalizer. Let’s take some of the social wars that are currently underway in the country - probably the most visible being gay marriage. If I were to set up a new company tomorrow and insist on hiring the best employees, the ones with the highest skills, greatest networks, and most stellar records, I’m going to kick the proverbial butt of a competitor that refuses to hire gays or offer benefits to same-sex partners. In time, I’m going to capture more of the market, hire more people, and social change is accomplished not because I necessarily set out to alter the political landscape, but because my goal was to make myself and my shareholders - which could very well include you and your family - wealthier. This should be perfectly obvious but people don’t seem to get it, and then they wonder why their sales and profits are not increasing at the same rate as their competitors.

We saw this same cycle a generation ago with the war for gender equality. Those who were willing to hire women based on their contribution succeeded faster. They had more brainpower, labor, and intellectual capital from which to draw.

September 10, 2008 at 11:22 am
(6) David says:

Damn, your smart. I vote Joshua Kennan for Commander in Chief.:)

September 14, 2008 at 4:21 pm
(7) Empowerment1 says:

All I would like to say is BRAVO Joshua Kennon!!! Keep the information afloat, and Thank you

September 17, 2008 at 1:32 pm
(8) Serge says:

`I believe if you are really ready for change, you should vote for Obama. Anyway, it is time for the democrates to take over. After all we have been through with the democrates there is no way you can let your fear overcome you ability to do the right thing. If Obama becomes president, America will change. And if America change, the world will change. People, let us just do the right thing.

September 22, 2008 at 7:30 pm
(9) charles harbin says:

it not going to matter about anyones opionion mccain is going to win because of the big oil lobbiest i am a democrat but i face the fact,s people do not want change other wise barack obama would be way ahead of mccain.

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