"We are staring over the edge of a precipice" ... "Heaven help us" - Warren Buffett
I'll get into the details later ... at headquarters we are picking up shares of some companies that have been nearly destroyed but are going to survive, plus pouring cash aside and shoring up in case Congress doesn't pass the bailout plan (which is a misnomer - it's not a $700 billion expense so much as it is a temporary working line of credit to buy bad (not worthless) mortgages at $0.20 to $0.60 on the dollar; citizens should eventually get all of that money back plus a substantial profit). We'll be fine, but the average American has another thing coming. If this plan isn't in place before the opening of the Asian market Sunday night, here's what is likely to happen:
- The commercial paper market is seizing. Big corporations don't keep cash around, typically. Instead, they borrow money from investors for 24 hours to 30 days and repay it plus a little interest (do you really think that Wal-Mart or General Electric keep cash in bank vaults and count it to make sure each paycheck will clear? Please.) If that happens, employee paychecks will not clear within a few weeks or months. The liquidity won't be there even though the companies are still profitable.
- Credit lines on existing credit cards or home equity lines of credit will be closed without your consent. You very well may get a letter explaining that your bank will not approve any more charges and you need to immediately begin making payments to reduce your balance. One of my business partners, who has a substantial portfolio, little absolute debt, and a very good living got a letter from one of the biggest banks in the country explaining that they needed to close the account because he wasn't using it. Reports have started to emerge that American Express have slammed $50,000 monthly credit limits for certain small businesses down to $3,000 to $5,000, putting them in a liquidity crisis of their own.
- As people need money to forestall bankruptcy or cash crunches, they will be forced to sell securities, which could decimate the Dow Jones and S&P 500, taking your retirement account down with it. For folks with plenty of cash like my company, this will make us richer in the long run because we can buy these assets at firesale pries and hold onto them, but this is bad for America and bad for the average worker because most people won't be out there buying more shares. They will instead be panic selling either out of fear or for need of funds.
- Farmers are going to get hit hard as credit for equipment, fertilizer, and supplies gets shut off first. This will spill over into construction. Caterpillar, a huge equipment manufacturer that is best known for its back hoes and other construction machinery, recently had its cost of short-term borrowing double in only a couple of weeks despite having plenty of cash. It's a good business with real cash on the balance sheet and it is getting hit hard - what do you think will happen when regular businesses try to get money?
- Small business owners are going to get financially slaughtered unless they pay in cash and have no debt. If the Government doesn't act and restore stability to the banking sector, there will be no small business loans, or working lines of credit, or inventory finances, or even real estate refinancing. Look at what just happened moments ago with Sonic Restaurants and McDonald's franchises - mom and pop entrepreneurs in small towns throughout the United States just got their access to money cut off! Yes, GE Money is less than 10% of the financing for Sonic, but it is also among the absolute strongest balance sheets in the world. Many companies look to these blue chips to set the tone. If someone with a balance sheet like that isn't willing to take risks, what makes you think mid-tier and small town banks will?
Like I said, I'll be back with more later, but right now my focus is on my companies and people. We'll be fine and even use the downturn to pick up market share and make more money, but the average worker out in the economy doesn't have any idea what they are in for if this isn't fixed now.
This whole thing can be averted if we have some sort of bill before the opening of the Asian markets on Monday.


No comments yet. Leave a Comment