For an experienced investor with little or no debt, such a drop would be a non-event. They would know why they own the companies they hold, have estimated the future profitability, and calculated that into a discounted cash flow formula that gives them a rough idea of what their rate of return should be provided the variables they plugged in are accurate or conservatively projected. In fact, these investors (what have been called "true" investors) would welcome price drops, even if it meant half of their net worth disappeared from their monthly statements. I can tell you with absolute certainty that, all else being equal, if Berkshire Hathaway were to fall from $120,000 per share to $50,000 per share compared to its $72,000 per share book value, I would not for a moment lament the paper loss in my net worth, but rather back up the truck and attempt to buy as many shares as possible, even selling off other assets to fund the acquisition. There's a good chance the folks at my office would have to stop me from doing cartwheels. That's because I know the company, how it generates its cash, and have a rough approximation, adjusted on a rolling basis, of its intrinsic value.
In this article, I'm going to attempt to lay an intellectual foundation to help you think differently about stock market volatility, as well as provide you with some tips and tricks that might help traversing the stormy seas of Wall Street a whole lot easier.
Lay the Foundation
First, and please correct me if I'm wrong here, but you probably want to retire comfortably. You work hard, and want to be rewarded for that work; because of that, I want you to bookmark your page right here and take a moment to lay the foundation of what we're going to discuss by reading How to Think About Stock Prices, Price is Paramount, and Defensive Investing: Building a Portfolio for Volatile Markets. These three pieces of content will arm you with some background that allows me to go further in this discussion, making it easier to serve you better.
It's All About the History Books
Bill Gross, arguably the greatest pure bond investor alive today, has said that if he were only able to study one book, it would be a comprehensive history of the financial markets. That's because it can provide a framework for understanding financial psychology. Most people make the mistake of thinking that investing success is related to intelligence. I want you to repeat after me: Being a successful investor isn't about intelligence. Isaac Newton, one of the most brilliant minds the human race has ever produced, was wiped out in the Dutch Tulip Bubble.A good place to start is the Ibbotson & Associates Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Classic Yearbook. Although it costs around $100 per hard bound copy, it provides data about market levels and returns for more than a century. A quick glance, and you'll be comforted to see that over periods of ten years or longer, the stock market almost always performs well, especially when coupled with a dollar cost averaging plan that allows you to take advantage of low prices and fat dividend yields.
Some Checkpoints to Lower Your Risk
If you are worried about risk management and not necessarily generating maximum returns (which most likely describes 99% of the readers), here are some things to consider:- The price-to-earnings ratio of your portfolio is no more than 10% higher than the market as a whole.
- The price-to-earnings ratio of your portfolio is no higher than twenty.
- You have a diversified base of stocks and bonds appropriate for your distance from retirement (you should own more and more fixed income or cash equivalents as you approach the end of your working career).
- Focus on mutual funds with low expense ratios, good historical performance ratings and established management who invest in the funds they manage.
- If you are interested in long-term (five years or more) returns that are competitive, stop moving assets around in your retirement account. You don't know more than the market, and you aren't experienced enough to make rational judgment calls. Stick to your plan, continue your contributions, and wait until retirement. Unless there is a fundamental deterioration in the underlying asset, the stupidest time to sell anything is after it has fallen in price.
